The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications

2001/07/20 by Stanley B. Goldenberg, Christopher W. Landsea, Alberto M. Mestas‐Nuñez +1 · 1 voice · 5 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climate variability and models #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

paper · doi:10.1126/science.1060040

openalex publication_date 2001/07/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23

Abstract

The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Compared with the generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971 to 1994), the past 6 years have seen a doubling of overall activity for the whole basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (>/=50 meters per second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean. The greater activity results from simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear. Because these changes exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional approximately 10 to 40 years. The shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Citations

• The Effect of Vertical Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Cited by

• Coherent surface‐subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
• An explanation for the lack of trend in the hurricane frequency
• When It Rains, It Pours: Future Climate Extremes and Health
• Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment
• Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean

Discussions

• Again, don’t discount the role of multidecadal variability in explaining the trends you present Figures are from Goldenberg et al 2001 (Science) and text from a CSU seasonal outlook c. 2000 doi.org/ [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]