Toward Convective-Scale Prediction within the Next Generation Global Prediction System

2019/03/14 by Linjiong Zhou, Shian‐Jiann Lin, Jan‐Huey Chen +3 · 3 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climate variability and models #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

paper · pdf · doi:10.1175/bams-d-17-0246.1

openalex publication_date 2019/03/14 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Abstract The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a new variable-resolution global model with the ability to represent convective-scale features that serves as a prototype of the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The goal of this prediction system is to maintain the skill in large-scale features while simultaneously improving the prediction skill of convectively driven mesoscale phenomena. This paper demonstrates the new capability of this model in convective-scale prediction relative to the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS). This model uses the stretched-grid functionality of the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) to refine the global 13-km uniform-resolution model down to 4-km convection-permitting resolution over the contiguous United States (CONUS), and implements the GFDL single-moment 6-category cloud microphysics to improve the representation of moist processes. Statistics gathered from two years of simulations by the GFS and select configurations of the FV3-based model are carefully examined. The variable-resolution FV3-based model is shown to possess global forecast skill comparable with that of the operational GFS while quantitatively improving skill and better representing the diurnal cycle within the high-resolution area compared to the uniform mesh simulations. Forecasts of the occurrence of extreme precipitation rates over the southern Great Plains are also shown to improve with the variable-resolution model. Case studies are provided of a squall line and a hurricane to demonstrate the effectiveness of the variable-resolution model to simulate convective-scale phenomena.

Citations

• The remarkable predictability of inter-annual variability of Atlantic hurricanes during the past decade
• Cloud-system resolving simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global atmospheric model (GEOS-5)
• Seasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclones Using a 25-km-Resolution General Circulation Model
• Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective Events
• Revision of Convection and Vertical Diffusion Schemes in the NCEP Global Forecast System
• The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
• Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids
• Advancements in Hurricane Prediction With NOAA's Next‐Generation Forecast System

Cited by

• Advancements in Hurricane Prediction With NOAA's Next‐Generation Forecast System
• The Persistent Challenge of Surface Heterogeneity in Boundary-Layer Meteorology: A Review
• Shian-Jiann Lin [wikipedia]

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