Advancements in Hurricane Prediction With NOAA's Next‐Generation Forecast System

2019/04/08 by Jan‐Huey Chen, Shian‐Jiann Lin, Linus Magnusson +7 · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2019gl082410

openalex publication_date 2019/04/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Abstract We use the fvGFS model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate the potential of the upcoming United States Next‐Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The fvGFS retrospective forecasts initialized with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data showed much‐improved track forecasts for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season compared to the best‐performing ECMWF operational model. The fvGFS greatly improved the ECMWF's poor track forecast for Hurricane Maria (2017). For Hurricane Irma (2017), a well‐predicted case by the ECMWF model, the fvGFS produced even lower five‐day track forecast errors. The fvGFS also showed better intensity prediction than both the United States and the ECMWF operational models, indicating the robustness of its numerical algorithms.

Citations

• A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes
• Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids
• Toward Convective-Scale Prediction within the Next Generation Global Prediction System

Cited by

• Toward Convective-Scale Prediction within the Next Generation Global Prediction System
• Shian-Jiann Lin [wikipedia]

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