2024/04/26 by Tong Zhang, Yuzhe Wang, Wei Leng +9 · 1 voice
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Medicine · #Cryospheric studies and observations #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics #Winter Sports Injuries and Performance
paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2024ef004545
openalex publication_date 2024/04/26 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Abstract In this study, we apply a three‐dimensional (3D) thermomechanically coupled higher‐order ice flow model to simulate the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG), Mt. Everest. We first diagnostically investigate its present‐day ice dynamic features in 2009 and then prognostically simulate the glacier during the time period 2010–2100. The ice flow model is initialized based on a Robin‐type inversion method by conducting six sensitivity experiments relating to glacier thermal boundary conditions. We apply two different surface mass balance parameterizations in the model, and both of them can reproduce the observed ice volume loss (around 0.1 km 3 ) during 2010–2020. We find that ERG is likely to experience maximum meltwater runoff at the year 2030 under the SSP‐126 scenario, while under SSP‐370 and ‐585 scenarios, the peak water will both likely occur at around 2060. The ice dynamics may contribute more to ice loss as climate warms in time.