2025/01/01 by Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, van der Laan, Larissa Nora +7
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #910 #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics #CMIP #Climate change #Climate model #Climate variability and models #Cryospheric studies and observations #Forcing (mathematics) #Glacier #Glacier mass balance #Pacific decadal oscillation #Streamflow #climate forcing #forecasting method #general circulation model #glacier mass balance #hydrological response #seasonal variation #timescale
paper · doi:10.15488/20255
openalex publication_date 2025/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/12/21 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
We present the first study employing decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-Term projections of glacier contributions to catchment hydrology and sea-level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the predictive skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts over decadal timescales in two components: for a set of 279 reference glaciers, making use of their mass balance record, and all land-Terminating glaciers, making use of the globally available geodetic mass balance, respectively. Results show that forcing OGGM with decadal re-forecasts outperforms persistence forecasts and historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Specifically, out of 279 reference glaciers, 174 show improved skill when forcing OGGM with decadal re-forecasts for decadal mean mass balance and 186 show improved skill for cumulative mass balance. On a global scale, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields the best agreement with observed regional mean mass balances for the period 2000-2020. These findings demonstrate moderate improvements from using decadal re-forecasts, though statistical significance is limited. While improvements are modest, the results suggest decadal re-forecasts may offer potential for improved near-Term glacier predictions relevant to hydrological applications, particularly in regions where near-Term forecasts can inform water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.