2021/02/20 by Victor Chernozhukov, Hiroyuki Kasahara, Paul Schrimpf · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Psychology · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 and Mental Health #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
paper · pdf · doi:10.1073/pnas.2103420118
openalex publication_date 2021/02/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This paper empirically examines how the opening of K-12 schools and colleges is associated with the spread of COVID-19 using county-level panel data in the United States. Using data on foot traffic and K-12 school opening plans, we analyze how an increase in visits to schools and opening schools with different teaching methods (in-person, hybrid, and remote) is related to the 2-weeks forward growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our debiased panel data regression analysis with a set of county dummies, interactions of state and week dummies, and other controls shows that an increase in visits to both K-12 schools and colleges is associated with a subsequent increase in case growth rates. The estimates indicate that fully opening K-12 schools with in-person learning is associated with a 5 (SE = 2) percentage points increase in the growth rate of cases. We also find that the positive association of K-12 school visits or in-person school openings with case growth is stronger for counties that do not require staff to wear masks at schools. These results have a causal interpretation in a structural model with unobserved county and time confounders. Sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to timing assumptions and alternative specifications.