2026/03/31 by Yu Lu, Tianni Zhang, Yuyao Wang +1
Mathematics · #stat.ME #math.ST #stat.AP #stat.CO #stat.TH
arxiv created 2026/07/31 · arxiv updated 2026/08/03
Longitudinal associations may vary over time, yet allowing every regression effect to be dynamic can inflate estimation variance and obscure interpretable structure. We develop time-varying-effect selection (TV-Select), a group-sparse smoothing framework that classifies covariate effects as zero, constant, or time varying. Each coefficient is decomposed into a constant mean and a centered temporal deviation represented by a full-rank, L2-normalized effective spline basis. A group penalty identifies varying components, while a roughness penalty controls their curvature. The resulting convex criterion is solved by cyclic block proximal-gradient updates and followed by smooth refitting. Under a full-column-rank unpenalized design and an effective model dimension that is small relative to the total number of observations, we establish prediction and parameter rates, blockwise function-estimation bounds, and exact recovery of the varying set under irrepresentability and beta-min conditions. A stable classification refit further separates zero from constant effects. For fixed-dimensional contrasts, we construct an oracle-equivalent one-step estimator with cluster-robust asymptotic normality and consistent sandwich variance estimation. Simulations demonstrate that TV-Select combines low false-positive rates with accurate function estimation and competitive prediction across a range of longitudinal settings. An application to Sleep-EDF data produces smooth and parsimonious temporal effect estimates with essentially unchanged held-out predictive performance.