Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict

2013/08/19 by Mark S. Bell, Nicholas L. Miller · 1 voice · 5 citations
Social Sciences · #International Relations and Foreign Policy #Nuclear Issues and Defense #Political Conflict and Governance

paper · doi:10.1177/0022002713499718

openalex publication_date 2013/08/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11

Abstract

We examine the effect of nuclear weapons on interstate conflict. Using more appropriate methodologies than have previously been used, we find that dyads in which both states possess nuclear weapons are not significantly less likely to fight wars, nor are they significantly more or less belligerent at low levels of conflict. This stands in contrast to previous work, which suggests nuclear dyads are some 2.7 million times less likely to fight wars. We additionally find that dyads in which one state possesses nuclear weapons are more prone to low-level conflict (but not more prone to war). This appears to be because nuclear-armed states expand their interests after nuclear acquisition rather than because nuclear weapons provide a shield behind which states can aggress against more powerful conventional-armed states. This calls into question conventional wisdom on the impact of nuclear weapons and has policy implications for the impact of nuclear proliferation.

Citations

• A solution to the problem of separation in logistic regression
• Bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates
• Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies
• Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data
• Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation

Cited by

• European nuclear weapons? Zombie debates and nuclear realities
• Avoiding atmospheric anarchy: Geoengineering as a source of interstate tension
• Nuclear balance and the initiation of nuclear crises: Does superiority matter?
• Out of the Loop Again: How Dangerous is Weaponizing Automated Nuclear Systems?
• Nuclear Weapons and Low-Level Military Conflict

Discussions

• Der Besitz von Atomwaffen schützt einen nicht vor Kriegen. Im Gegenteil. Atomwaffen werden genutzt, um durch Erpressung anderer Staaten eigene Interessen durchsetzen. Das ist wissenschaftlich belegt: [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]

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