2026/01/22 by Thorsten Gromes, Lucas Kori Leonhard · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Global Peace and Security Dynamics #Peacebuilding and International Security #International Law and Human Rights
paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/13533312.2025.2608853
openalex publication_date 2026/01/22 · openalex created_date 2026/01/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/15
Because humanitarian military interventions declare their objective of ‘saving strangers’, yet occur in only 9% of intrastate conflicts, the question arises as to whether there are patterns to their occurrence. Insights into such patterns are relevant for assessing the credibility of such missions, while credibility influences how much support these operations receive. Moreover, such insights are needed to evaluate the impact of these interventions. Previous research either conflates humanitarian military interventions with other types of interventions or considers only a specific potential intervener. This study examines the selectivity of humanitarian military interventions without focusing on particular actors. It argues that decisions to intervene are based on both the need for intervention and the anticipated chance of success. Using event history analysis of conflict data from 1989 to 2022, it finds that a higher monthly average of conflict fatalities increases the rate of humanitarian military intervention. This holds when all deaths or only civilian fatalities are considered. Factors increasing intervention difficulty – extensive government forces, internationalized intrastate conflicts and large conflict areas – reduce the likelihood of intervention. Further analysis indicates that above a certain level of intervention need, intervention difficulty becomes the key factor shaping whether a humanitarian military intervention occurs.