2026/06/02 by Xiaoxian Liu, Xiongbo Jiang, Chuan Chen +8 · 1 voice
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Environmental Science · #Forest Ecology and Biodiversity Studies #Forest Insect Ecology and Management #Invertebrate Taxonomy and Ecology
paper · doi:10.1016/j.tfp.2026.101337
openalex publication_date 2026/06/02 · openalex created_date 2026/06/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
Forests play a crucial role in mitigating global climate change by absorbing and sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, the spread of invasive pests poses a significant threat to these ecosystems and dynamics of carbon storage. Sirex noctilio Fabricius, an invasive woodwasp, has recently emerged as a risky forestry pest in China; yet, the carbon storage risk (CSR) posed by its invasion remains poorly understood. This study integrated an optimized MaxEnt species distribution model with a volume-to-biomass conversion approach to estimate the potential distribution of S. noctilio and the associated CSR in Chinese pine forests under both current and future climate conditions. Future projections were conducted across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the 2060s and 2100s. In current years, the potential distribution of S. noctilio was found to be concentrated in mid-latitude temperate forests (35°–55°N), primarily in Northeast China, with temperature seasonality and elevation identified as the dominant limiting environmental factors. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats were projected to shift progressively northward and westward into the North and Northwest regions. The total current CSR from this invasion was estimated at approximately 4.37 Tg C (95% CI : 3.65–5.19 Tg C), with Northeast China alone accounting for approximately 59.3% of the total. Driven by escalating climate change and forest growth, this CSR was expected to increase substantially to 8.52–9.53 Tg C by the 2060s, and to 11.31–24.08 Tg C by the 2100s, peaking at 24.08 Tg C under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) -more than twice the loss projected under SSP1-2.6. Ultimately, the invasion of S. noctilio poses a systemic and escalating threat to the carbon storage of northern China's pine forest ecosystems. These dramatic spatiotemporal shifts in pest distribution and subsequent carbon storage risks underscore the critical need for proactive pest control and targeted forest management strategies.