How Much Is Minnesota Like Wisconsin? Assumptions and Counterfactuals in Causal Inference with Observational Data

2013/01/01 by Luke Keele, William Minozzi · 1 voice · 3 citations
Mathematics · Social Sciences · #Advanced Causal Inference Techniques #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Policy Transfer and Learning

paper · doi:10.1093/pan/mps041

openalex publication_date 2013/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/21

Abstract

Political scientists are often interested in estimating causal effects. Identification of causal estimates with observational data invariably requires strong untestable assumptions. Here, we outline a number of the assumptions used in the extant empirical literature. We argue that these assumptions require careful evaluation within the context of specific applications. To that end, we present an empirical case study on the effect of Election Day Registration (EDR) on turnout. We show how different identification assumptions lead to different answers, and that many of the standard assumptions used are implausible. Specifically, we show that EDR likely had negligible effects in the states of Minnesota and Wisconsin. We conclude with an argument for stronger research designs.

Citations

• Heterogeneity and Causality
• Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators
• Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects
• Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.
• Inference with Difference-in-Differences and Other Panel Data

Cited by

• Using Multiple Pre-treatment Periods to Improve Difference-in-Differences and Staggered Adoption Design
• Patterns of Effects and Sensitivity Analysis for Differences-in-Differences
• A bracketing relationship between difference-in-differences and lagged-dependent-variable adjustment

Discussions

• Ah yes, required reading from my first year of grad school: https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps041. I've never tried either of these beverages though. [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]

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