2025/09/26 by Anniek Kortleve, Paul Behrens, Oliver Taherzadeh +2 · 1 voice
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · #Agricultural Economics and Policy
paper · pdf · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-7543469/v1
crossref issued 2025/09/26 · crossref published 2025/09/26 · openalex publication_date 2025/09/26 · crossref created 2025/09/26 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · crossref deposited 2025/12/04 · crossref indexed 2025/12/04 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/15
Abstract The scale of animal agriculture in the EU threatens climate, biodiversity, and public health. We show that transitioning to plant-rich diets, under scenarios of Moderate, Low, and Zero animal-sourced food (ASF) intake, would release 28-84 Mha of agricultural land in the EU+UK and free €12-39 billion year-1 of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies as of 2020. Simultaneously, farm employment would decline by 8-58%, while unsubsidised farm profits would increase by 8% under Moderate ASF intake, decrease 3% under Low ASF, and fall 36% under Zero ASF. Most profits in animal agriculture depend on public support, indicating widespread economic vulnerability. However, impacts vary across regions: livestock-dominated loss-makers would see losses disappear, while livestock-dominated profit-makers would see profits eroded. These effects could be offset by repurposing CAP savings. To support a plant-rich, just food transition, spatially differentiated CAP reform is essential. We identify five distinct transition archetypes to guide such policy tailoring.