Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

2024/08/02 by Maya Ben‐Yami, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany +1 · 1 voice · 40 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Component (thermodynamics) #Computer science #Earth system science #Econometrics #Economics #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Engineering #Environmental science #Extrapolation #Geography #Geology #Mathematics #Meteorology #Physics #Representativeness heuristic #Stability (learning theory) #Statistics #Tipping point (physics)

paper · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl4841

published in Science Advances 10(31), eadl4841 (American Association for the Advancement of Science)

openalex publication_date 2024/08/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05

Abstract

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping times. Here, we argue that the involved uncertainties are too high to robustly predict tipping times. We raise concerns regarding (i) the modeling assumptions underlying any extrapolation of historical results into the future, (ii) the representativeness of individual Earth system component time series, and (iii) the impact of uncertainties and preprocessing of used observational datasets, with focus on nonstationary observational coverage and gap filling. We explore these uncertainties in general and specifically for the example of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We argue that even under the assumption that a given Earth system component has an approaching tipping point, the uncertainties are too large to reliably estimate tipping times by extrapolating historical information.

Citations

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Cited by

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• Four propositions to narrow the gap between science and policy for climate change adaptation: Insights and evidence from Aotearoa New Zealand
• Physics‐Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change
• Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• Anticipating AMOC transitions via deep learning
• Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves
• Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest
• Algunos problemas en el horizonte de la política verde actual
• The influence of data gaps and outliers on resilience indicators
• Chaotic Kramers' Law: Hasselmann's Program and AMOC Tipping
• Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements
• Early warning skill, extrapolation and tipping for accelerating cascades
• Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: Edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO₂ forcing
• Estimating the Resilience of Non-Stationary Systems
• Physics of an AMOC Overshoot in a Box Model
• Critical Slowing Down in Bifurcating Stochastic Partial Differential Equations with Red Noise

Discussions

• Existing study finds that the uncertainties are too large to predict tipping points. Ben-Yami, M. et al. (2024) ‘Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from [bsky, 1 points, 2 comments]

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