2025/11/07 by Emma Suzanne Aimée de Moll, Duarte V. Gonçãlves, André Vicente Liz · 1 voice
Environmental Science · #Aquatic Ecosystems and Biodiversity #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Physiological and biochemical adaptations
paper · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111580
openalex publication_date 2025/11/07 · openalex created_date 2025/11/07 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/17
Climate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss and must be integrated into conservation planning. Yet, predictions of biological community responses are missing in neglected and vulnerable ecoregions, such as the Sahara Desert. This study aims to predict and interpret future range losses of Saharan vertebrate groups and examine their relationship with conservation-relevant features. We modelled species distribution and future climate suitability of all data-sufficient Saharan vertebrates (130 species), using climatic and land-cover predictors. Multiple climate-change and socio-economic scenarios were considered for mid- and end-century. We assessed suitable range shifts according to taxonomic, threat, and flagship classes, and mapped potential climate refugia and risk areas. Our results indicate major climate-change-driven impacts on Saharan vertebrates, where range sizes of several species may be nearly halved by mid-century (43 % average loss) and experience further decrease until the end of the century (55 %). Birds were the most impacted group (59 % average loss vs 53 % and 49 % for reptiles and mammals by 2100); threatened species showed a slightly higher range loss than non-threatened species (58 % vs 54 % average loss by 2100); non-flagship species showed higher range loss than flagship species (50 % vs 58 % average loss by 2100), yet spatial patterns of decline were similar. Potential refugia were located mainly along coastlines, often in currently unprotected areas, while risk areas were concentrated in mountain ranges and around the Mediterranean edge. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of desert wildlife to the climate crisis, even under optimistic scenarios. We call for urgent conservation policies that address group-specific climate responses and prioritise the protection of climatic refugia and genetic diversity in high-risk areas. In a resource-limited context, conservation efforts targeting flagship species may effectively reflect climate impacts on broader vertebrate communities.