Quantifying the probability of committed AMOC collapse

2026/06/26 by Philip Bernard Holden, Jesse Abrams, Michelle Bieger +4 · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life #Cryospheric studies and observations

paper · pdf · doi:10.31223/x5n48q

openalex publication_date 2026/06/26 · openalex created_date 2026/06/27 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/15

Abstract

The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC would have catastrophic consequences for societies. We quantify the risk of committed AMOC collapse using large ensembles of Earth system model simulations. Under conservative assumptions of Greenland ice sheet melt, the probability that collapse is already committed is 10%, rising to 80% by 2100 under worst case emissions. Under less conservative Greenland melt assumptions, probability that collapse is already committed is 23%.

Discussions

• The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC would have catastrophic consequences for societies. We quantify the risk of committed AMOC collapse using large ensembles of Earth [bsky, 4 points, 0 comments]

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