Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
2024/06/17 by Emma J. V. Smolders, René M. van Westen, Smolders, Emma J. V. +3 · 9 voices · 1 citation
#physics.ao-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2406.11738
Abstract
There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.
Cited by
Discussions
- Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse [hn, 111 points, 53 comments]
- Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse [hn, 3 points, 0 comments]
- Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse [hn, 2 points, 0 comments]
- In your article you state "Scientists don't expect the AMOC to fizzle out this century." Are you aware of climate scientist Paul Beckwith who has a different outlook. arxiv.org/abs/2406.11738 www.yout [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
- Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the #AMOC #collapse time. The collapse time is estimated b/w 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050+the probab [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- For those who think in stories: we know at least 4 drivers of positive feedback loops which could become existential: 1. AMOC: arxiv.org/pdf/2406.11738 2. methane release 3. snow cover changes 4. war [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse (arxiv.org) Main Link | Discussion [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- I have found the paper at arXiv predicting the AMOC collapse between 2037 and 2064. "Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse" The lead author is Emma Smoulders and it was submited abou [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
Related