2023/06/07 by Laura Paler, Jeremy Springman, Guy Grossman +1 · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Social Sciences · #International Development and Aid #Mining and Resource Management #Natural Resources and Economic Development
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/psrm.2023.14
openalex publication_date 2023/06/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/21
Abstract Oil discoveries, paired with delays in production, have created a new phenomenon: sustained post-discovery, pre-production periods. While research on the resource curse has debated the effects of oil on governance and conflict, less is known about the political effects of oil discoveries absent production. Using comprehensive electoral data from Uganda and a difference-in-differences design with heterogeneous effects, we show that oil discoveries increased electoral support for the incumbent chief executive in localities proximate to discoveries, even prior to production. Moreover, the biggest effects occurred in localities that were historically most electorally competitive. Overall, we show that the political effects of oil discoveries vary subnationally depending on local political context and prior to production, with important implications for understanding the roots of the political and conflict curses.