2025/07/29 by Huw Dylan, Elena Grossfeld · 3 voices · 2 citations
Social Sciences · #Intelligence, Security, War Strategy #European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies #Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/02684527.2025.2544460
openalex publication_date 2025/07/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/02
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was accompanied by a major intelligence failure. Russia’s intelligence machinery failed strategically and tactically, leaving leaders surprised and forces lost. Why? This article argues that to understand the failures of 2022 we should consider the strategic culture of Russian intelligence. It explores elements of this culture, particularly the maintenance of a ‘besieged fortress’ mindset. It argues that key features of Russian intelligence, such as its reluctance to provide unwelcome news to political leaders, are rooted in this culture. This is something that Russia will struggle to resolve – even as it rather successfully adapts other elements of its military and intelligence – its roots are deep.