2026/07/01 by Mustafa Cemal Darilmaz
Environmental Science · #Avian ecology and behavior #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Species Distribution and Climate Change
paper · doi:10.1002/aqc.70424
openalex publication_date 2026/07/01 · openalex created_date 2026/07/16 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/16
ABSTRACT Hypersaline lakes are shrinking worldwide, yet how desiccation drives breeding failure in dependent waterbirds remains poorly quantified over multi‐decadal timescales. Tuz Gölü (Lake Tuz, Türkiye) supports the largest Greater Flamingo ( Phoenicopterus roseus ) breeding colony in the Eastern Mediterranean, contributing up to 67% of regional chick production, but faces accelerating breeding‐season water loss driven by declining precipitation, rising evaporative demand and basin‐scale water extraction. This study analysed a 29‐year satellite record (1997–2025) combining Landsat–MODIS imagery, ERA5‐Land climate data, model selection, a water‐balance model and CMIP6 projections under three emission scenarios. April‐to‐June water loss rate was the strongest correlate of fledged chick counts (Spearman rho = −0.634, p = 0.003), although leave‐one‐out cross‐validation indicated limited point‐prediction accuracy for individual years (LOOCV R 2 = 0.061). A critical June water threshold of 175 km 2 separated successful from failed seasons (Mann–Whitney p = 0.007). Water availability is declining (Mann–Kendall p = 0.036), and under the highest‐emission scenario, three of four climate models indicate that June water area may fall below this threshold by 2081–2100, though end‐century temperatures lie outside the observational training range. The 2025 season produced zero fledged chicks despite active water supplementation, suggesting that water presence alone may be insufficient when the Artemia ‐based food web collapses under hypersalinity. A dual‐threshold framework is hypothesised, in which both adequate water area and a functional trophic base may be jointly required, pending direct in situ verification of the trophic component. The framework applies to drying hypersaline wetlands worldwide, including the Great Salt Lake, Lake Urmia and the Aral Sea basin, where analogous trajectories threaten dependent waterbirds.