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Forecasting the 2025 German Election: An Introduction

2025/12/15 by Bruno Jérôme, Andreas Graefe
Social Sciences · #Computational and Text Analysis Methods #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Populism, Right-Wing Movements

paper · doi:10.1017/s1049096525101108

openalex created_date 2025/12/15 · openalex publication_date 2025/12/15 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

German federal elections have long drawn international attention due to the country’s economic influence and its pivotal role in the European Union. Over time, forecasting these elections has evolved into a sophisticated discipline, incorporating diverse models and refined methodologies to improve accuracy. Since 2013, PS: Political Science & Politics has played a key role in tracking these developments by publishing three special symposia dedicated to forecasting German elections (Jérôme 2013, 2017; Jérôme and Graefe 2022). This 2025 symposium marks the fourth installment, continuing a tradition of providing scholars with a platform to share insights and reflect on the field’s ongoing expansion.

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