2024/10/15 by Philippe Mongrain, Mary Stegmaier · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Media Influence and Politics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s1049096524001008
ABSTRACT This Special Issue presents a wide array of election forecasting models for the 2024 US elections. Most of these models generate forecasts for the presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial races. The contributions are characterized by the variety of their approaches: citizen forecasting, electronic markets, large language models, machine learning, poll-based models, and regression analysis. This introduction first summarizes some of the lessons and challenges of election forecasting. We then provide a brief context of the 2024 campaign and a short overview of the articles included in the Special Issue. The forecasts point to a tight presidential race. The two-party popular-vote predictions are almost evenly split, with some favoring Donald Trump and others Kamala Harris. However, among the models that offer an Electoral College forecast, three predict that Harris will win and five predict that Trump will return to the presidency.