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In itinere infections covertly undermine localized epidemic control in metapopulations

2025/04/10 by Francesca Dilisante, Dilisante, Francesca, Pablo Valgañón +7 · 1 voice
Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Network Analysis Techniques #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

paper · pdf · doi:10.1063/5.0275094

Abstract

Metapopulation models have traditionally assessed epidemic dynamics by emphasizing local (in situ) interactions within defined subpopulations, often neglecting transmission occurring during mobility phases (in itinere). Here, we extend the Movement-Interaction-Return metapopulation framework to explicitly include contagions acquired during transit, considering agents traveling along shared transportation networks. We reveal that incorporating in itinere contagion entails a notable reduction of the epidemic threshold and a pronounced delocalization of the epidemic trajectory, particularly significant in early-stage outbreaks.

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