2021/07/01 by Streitmatter, Lauren, Zhang, Peter
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2107.00203
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing ones by having a more detailed representation of travel patterns, without losing tractability. This allows us to study the epidemic consequence of inter-regional travel with high fidelity. In particular, we define travel cadence as a two-dimensional measure of inter-regional travel, and show that both dimensions modulate epidemic spread. This technical insight leads to policy recommendations, pointing to a family of simple policy trajectories that can effectively curb epidemic spread while maintaining a basic level of mobility.