2025/08/01 by Elias Koch · 1 voice · 1 citation
Social Sciences · Business, Management and Accounting · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Social Policy and Reform Studies #Political Influence and Corporate Strategies
paper · doi:10.1080/01402382.2025.2524944
Opposition parties benefit electorally from engaging in conflict with the government. However, it remains unclear whether they adjust their rhetoric towards the executive in response to changes in their public support. This study argues that opposition parties seek more conflict with the government when losing in election polls. It tests the hypothesis using an original dataset comprising all major German parties’ interjections – adversarial interruptions of legislative speech – during debates in the 16 German state parliaments (1998–2019). Based on 664,011 interruptions during 250,555 government speeches, it shows that opposition parties increasingly seek conflict with the government when their polling performance declines. This relationship between opposition parties’ rhetoric and their public approval is particularly strong when they are polling below their previous election results. These findings contribute to our understanding of how public opinion in general, and election polls in particular, affect conflict between opposition and government in representative democracies.