2026/04/09 by Salvatore Barbaro, Anna‐Sophie Kurella, Maike Roth · 1 voice
Social Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy #Game Theory and Voting Systems
paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/17457289.2026.2655246
openalex publication_date 2026/04/09 · openalex created_date 2026/04/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
The performance of parties in elections does not necessarily reflect the level of support they enjoy among the electorate. Election outcomes depend on how voter preferences are aggregated, and the choice of the electoral method can have a greater impact than the preferences themselves. As a corollary of this finding, election results may be positively or negatively correlated with voter evaluations of parties, or they may be uncorrelated. Using short-term and long-term data from Germany, this paper demonstrates that voter preferences and party performance are interconnected in parliamentary elections under a PR voting system. Our findings challenge widely held narratives about the crisis of social democratic parties and the alleged rise in support for right-wing parties.