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NHANES 2011–2014: Objective Physical Activity Is the Strongest Predictor of All-Cause Mortality

2024/07/01 by Andrew Leroux, ANDREW LEROUX, Erjia Cui +9 · 2 citations
Health Professions · Medicine · #Balance, Gait, and Falls Prevention #Cardiovascular and exercise physiology #Physical Activity and Health

paper · doi:10.1249/mss.0000000000003497

openalex publication_date 2024/07/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Objectively measured physical activity (PA) is a modifiable risk factor for mortality. Understanding the predictive performance of PA is essential to establish potential targets for early intervention to reduce mortality among older adults. METHODS: The study used a subset of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011-2014 data consisting of participants 50 to 80 yr old ( n = 3653, 24297.5 person-years of follow-up, 416 deaths). Eight accelerometry-derived features and 14 traditional predictors of all-cause mortality were compared and ranked in terms of their individual and combined predictive performance using the 10-fold cross-validated concordance (C) from Cox regression. RESULTS: The top 3 predictors of mortality in univariate analysis were PA related: average Monitor-Independent Movement Summary (MIMS) in the 10 most active hours (C = 0.697), total MIMS per day (C = 0.686), and average log-transformed MIMS in the most 10 active hours of the day (C = 0.684), outperforming age (C = 0.676) and other traditional predictors of mortality. In multivariate regression, adding objectively measured PA to the top performing model without PA variables increased concordance from C = 0.776 to C = 0.790 ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of PA as a risk marker of mortality and are consistent with prior studies, confirming the importance of accelerometer-derived activity measures beyond total volume.

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