2024/07/16 by Dongni Zhang, Zhang, Dongni, Martina Favero +1
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Probability (math.PR)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2407.11622
openalex publication_date 2024/07/16 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We consider a stochastic epidemic model with sideward contact tracing. We assume that infection is driven by interactions within mixing events (gatherings of two or more individuals). Once an infective is diagnosed, each individual who was infected at the same event as the diagnosed individual is contact traced with some given probability. Assuming few initial infectives in a large population, the early phase of the epidemic is approximated by a branching process with sibling dependencies. To address the challenges given by the dependencies, we consider sibling groups (individuals who become infected at the same event) as macro-individuals and define a macro-branching process. This allows us to derive an expression for the effective macro-reproduction number which corresponds to the effective individual reproduction number and represents a threshold for the behaviour of the epidemic. Through numerical examples, we show how the reproduction number varies with the distribution of the mixing event size, the mean size, the rate of diagnosis and the tracing probability.