2012/09/27 by Austin Gerig, Gerig, Austin
Neuroscience · Physics and Astronomy · #Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.CO) #FOS: Physical sciences #General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology (gr-qc) #High Energy Physics - Theory (hep-th) #Neuroethics, Human Enhancement, Biomedical Innovations #Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph) #Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life #Space exploration and regulation #astro-ph.CO #gr-qc #hep-th #physics.pop-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1209.6251
18 pages
arxiv created 2012/09/27 · openalex publication_date 2012/09/27 · arxiv updated 2012/09/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
You and I are highly unlikely to exist in a civilization that has produced only 70 billion people, yet we find ourselves in just such a civilization. Our circumstance, which seems difficult to explain, is easily accounted for if (1) many other civilizations exist and if (2) nearly all of these civilizations (including our own) die out sooner than usually thought, i.e., before trillions of people are produced. Because the combination of (1) and (2) make our situation likely and alternatives do not, we should drastically increase our belief that (1) and (2) are true. These results follow immediately when considering a many worlds version of the "Doomsday Argument" and are immune to the main criticism of the original Doomsday Argument.