2019/09/23 by M. Lampton, Mike Lampton, Lampton, Mike · 1 citation
Physics and Astronomy · Psychology · Social Sciences · #Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation #FOS: Physical sciences #Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs #Popular Physics (physics.pop-ph) #Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life #physics.pop-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1909.11031
8 pages, 4 figures
openalex publication_date 2019/09/23 · arxiv created 2019/09/30 · arxiv updated 2019/10/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Here I argue that the much-discussed Doomsday Argument (DA) has two flaws. Its mathematical flaw stems from applying frequentist probability or faulty Bayesian inference. Its conceptual flaw is assuming that Copernican uniformity applies to a collection of ranked people and their ideas. I conclude that the DA has no predictive power whatsoever.