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Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for Societal Booms through Bayesian Inference Approach

2019/07/28 by Yasushi Ota, Ota, Yasushi, Naoki Mizutani +1
Computer Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Mathematics · Medicine · Physics and Astronomy · #34D20 #91B80 (Secondary) #97M40 (Primary) #Applied mathematics #Artificial intelligence #Bayesian inference #Bayesian probability #Boom #Chaos control and synchronization #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Computer science #Computers and Society (cs.CY) #Econometrics #Engineering #FOS: Computer and information sciences #G.1.7 #Inference #J.4 #Machine learning #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Mathematical model #Mathematics #Stability (learning theory) #Statistics #Transient (computer programming) #acm:34D20 #acm:91B80 #acm:97M40 #cs.CY #msc:34D20 #msc:91B80 #msc:97M40

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1907.12090

published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University) · 14pages with 11 figures

openalex publication_date 2019/07/28 · openalex created_date 2019/08/13 · arxiv created 2019/09/03 · arxiv updated 2019/09/04 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

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