A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior

2009/08/28 by Stephen Jewson, Jewson, Stephen, Dan Rowlands +3
Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0908.4207

arxiv created 2009/08/28 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01

Abstract

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered computationally unfeasible. We propose an approximation that we believe makes it feasible, and derive closed-form expressions for various simple cases.

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