Improving the expected accuracy of forecasts of future climate using a simple bias-variance tradeoff

2009/11/10 by Stephen Jewson, Ed Hawkins, Jewson, Stephen +1 · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Geophysics and Gravity Measurements #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0911.1904

arxiv created 2009/11/10 · openalex publication_date 2009/11/10 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination between the forecast from a numerical model multi-model ensemble, on one hand, and a simple statistical forecast, on the other. We apply the method to predictions for UK temperature and precipitation for the period 2010 to 2100. The temperature predictions hardly change, while the precipitation predictions show large changes.

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