2018/11/29 by Henry Bendekgey, Bendekgey, Henry
Decision Sciences · Mathematics · #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Forecasting Techniques and Applications #stat.AP
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1811.12466
arxiv created 2018/11/29 · openalex publication_date 2018/11/29 · arxiv updated 2018/12/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We consider the performance of the foremost academic House of Representatives forecasting models in the 2018 elections. In creating open-source implementations of these models, we outline key underlying assumptions. We find that although the results were unsurprising, they indicate a weakening of many traditional forecasting indicators.