The Causal Logic of Critical Junctures

2012/10/29 by Hillel David Soifer · 21 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Historical Economic and Social Studies #Political and Economic history of UK and US #Australian History and Society

paper · doi:10.1177/0010414012463902

Abstract

Despite the fact that critical junctures are frequently deployed in historical analyses, we lack an explicit causal logic for them. This article proposes a distinction between permissive and productive conditions in critical junctures. Permissive conditions are necessary conditions that mark the loosening of constraints on agency or contingency and thus provide the temporal bounds on critical junctures. Productive conditions, which can take various logical forms, act within the context of these permissive conditions to produce divergence. I develop these concepts in detail and use classic analyses that apply the concept to show the implications of this new framework for the scope conditions, case selection, and theoretical completeness of historical analysis, as well as for broader issues in historical analysis such as the relationships between crisis and outcome, and between stability and change.

Citations

• Context and Causal Mechanisms in Political Analysis

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