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Strategy Selection in Influence Diagrams using Imprecise Probabilities

2012/06/13 by Cassio P. de Campos, Cassio Polpo de Campos, Qiang Ji +2 · 3 citations
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · #AI-based Problem Solving and Planning #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Multi-Criteria Decision Making #cs.AI

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1206.3246

Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2008)

arxiv created 2012/06/13 · openalex publication_date 2012/06/13 · arxiv updated 2012/06/18 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This paper describes a new algorithm to solve the decision making problem in Influence Diagrams based on algorithms for credal networks. Decision nodes are associated to imprecise probability distributions and a reformulation is introduced that finds the global maximum strategy with respect to the expected utility. We work with Limited Memory Influence Diagrams, which generalize most Influence Diagram proposals and handle simultaneous decisions. Besides the global optimum method, we explore an anytime approximate solution with a guaranteed maximum error and show that imprecise probabilities are handled in a straightforward way. Complexity issues and experiments with random diagrams and an effects-based military planning problem are discussed.

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