2013/12/07 by Xi Huo, Huo, Xi
Mathematics · Medicine · #35Q92 #37N25 #92B05 #Analysis of PDEs (math.AP) #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1312.2120
openalex publication_date 2013/12/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected population are modeled by a nonlinear infection-age-dependent partial differential equation, which is coupled with an ordinary differential equation that describes the dynamics of the susceptible population. Theoretical results about global existence and uniqueness of positive solutions are proved. We also present two practical applications of our model: (1) we assess public health guidelines about emergency preparedness and response in the event of a smallpox bioterrorist attack; (2) we simulate the 2003 SARS outbreak in Taiwan and estimate the number of cases avoided by contact tracing. Our model can be applied as a rational basis for decision makers to guide interventions and deploy public health resources in future epidemics.