Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram

2009/02/12 by P. C. Gregory, Gregory, P. C.
Physics and Astronomy · #Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP) #FOS: Physical sciences #astro-ph.EP

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0902.2014

In JSM Proceedings, Denver, CO, Aug. 3, 2008: American Statistical Association

arxiv created 2009/02/12 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01

Abstract

A Bayesian re-analysis of published radial velocity data sets is providing evidence for additional planetary candidates. The nonlinear model fitting is accomplished with a new hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMCMC) algorithm which incorporates parallel tempering, simulated annealing and genetic crossover operations. Each of these features facilitate the detection of a global minimum in chi². By combining all three, the HMCMC greatly increases the probability of realizing this goal. When applied to the Kepler problem it acts as a powerful multi-planet Kepler periodogram for both parameter estimation and model selection. The HMCMC algorithm is embedded in a unique two stage adaptive control system that automates the tuning of the MCMC proposal distributions through an annealing operation.

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