2025/10/20 by Bo Liang, Liang, Bo, Chang Liu +18
Physics and Astronomy · #Astro and Planetary Science #Astronomy and Astrophysical Research #Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA) #Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2510.17459
openalex publication_date 2025/10/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/22 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this work, we propose a flow-matching Markov chain Monte Carlo (FM-MCMC) algorithm for estimating the orbital parameters of exoplanetary systems, especially for those only one exoplanet is involved. Compared to traditional methods that rely on random sampling within the Bayesian framework, our approach first leverages flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) to efficiently constrain the prior range of physical parameters, and then employs MCMC to accurately infer the posterior distribution. For example, in the orbital parameter inference of beta Pictoris b, our model achieved a substantial speed-up while maintaining comparable accuracy-running 77.8 times faster than Parallel Tempered MCMC (PTMCMC) and 365.4 times faster than nested sampling. Moreover, our FM-MCMC method also attained the highest average log-likelihood among all approaches, demonstrating its superior sampling efficiency and accuracy. This highlights the scalability and efficiency of our approach, making it well-suited for processing the massive datasets expected from future exoplanet surveys. Beyond astrophysics, our methodology establishes a versatile paradigm for synergizing deep generative models with traditional sampling, which can be adopted to tackle complex inference problems in other fields, such as cosmology, biomedical imaging, and particle physics.