2013/06/19 by Sabrina Sanchez, Sanchez, Sabrina Maite, Alexandre Fournier +3 · 1 citation
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Physics and Astronomy · #Astro and Planetary Science #FOS: Physical sciences #Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies #Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics #Solar and Stellar Astrophysics (astro-ph.SR)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1306.4561
openalex publication_date 2013/06/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society.\nPredictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are\ncurrently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar\ndynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the\npredictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport\ndynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control\nparameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with\nthe exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory,\nwhich yields a characteristic time scale known as the e-folding time \τe.\nThe e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the\n\α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional\ncirculation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we\nobtain an average estimate for \τe equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations.\nFrom a practical point of view, the perturbations analysed in this work can be\ninterpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical\nmodel itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar\ncycle prediction.\n