How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a “Just Transition Agreement” on Spanish Election Results

2023/12/04 by DIANE BOLET, Diane Bolet, FERGUS GREEN +3 · 2 voices · 76 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Climate change #Climate policy #Craft #Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Elite #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy #Geography #Government (linguistics) #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Voting

paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s0003055423001235

published in American Political Science Review 118(3), 1344-1359 (Cambridge University Press)

openalex publication_date 2023/12/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

Enacting stringent climate policy has proven politically challenging, not least because of concentrated losses in fossil fuel-producing communities. “Just transition” strategies have been proposed to mitigate this distributional challenge. Yet, little is known about how such strategies affect voting behavior. Using a mixed-methods approach, we exploit a local climate policy in Spain—a “Just Transition Agreement” (JTA) to phase out coalmining, support affected workers, and invest in affected municipalities—which was negotiated by the incumbent Socialist Party (PSOE) government with affected unions and businesses shortly before a national election. A difference-in-differences study shows that PSOE’s vote share in coalmining municipalities increased at the 2019 election relative to similar municipalities, implying that the JTA was electorally successful. Further statistical tests and elite interviews suggest that this electoral boost was driven by unions’ support of the JTA. Our findings have implications for how parties can craft popular climate policy.

Citations

• Political Competition, Path Dependence, and the Strategy of Sustainable Energy Transitions
• A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region
• “Coal is Not Just a Job, It’s a Way of Life”: The Cultural Politics of Coal Production in Central Appalachia
• How interest groups influence public opinion: Arguments matter more than the sources
• The justice and equity implications of the clean energy transition
• Interests, Norms and Support for the Provision of Global Public Goods: The Case of Climate Co-operation

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Discussions

• Is it possible to phase out coal and still win an election? Yes! Excited that my paper w @fergusgreen.bsky.social & Mikel González-Eguino on the electoral success of JustTransition policies in coalm [bsky, 75 points, 5 comments]
• You can phase out coal and still win an election: 'How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a “Just Transition Agreement” on Spanish Election Results' by @dianebolet.bsky.soci [bsky, 4 points, 1 comments]

Related

• Environmentally Blind Discourses on Coal Extraction and the Idealization of the Miner in Spain
• The Political Economy of Coal
• Fast because it’s just: fostering acceptance to accelerate sustainability transitions in coal-dependent regions
• Feasible climate policies in a democracy with a climate-denying party
• Public support for climate policies: costs, redistribution, and ideological divides