2025/10/24 by Vincent Heddesheimer, Hanno Hilbig, Erik Voeten · 3 voices · 2 citations
Social Sciences · #Backlash #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Normative #Perception #Polarization (electrochemistry) #Political Conflict and Governance #Politics #Social and Cultural Dynamics #Transition (genetics) #Workforce
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s0003055425101226
published in American Political Science Review, 1-23 (Cambridge University Press)
openalex created_date 2025/10/24 · openalex publication_date 2025/10/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/16
Green transition policies set long-term targets to reduce carbon emissions and other pollutants, posing a threat to workers in polluting occupations and communities reliant on them. Can far-right parties attract voters who anticipate losing from the green transition? We explore this in Germany, which has ambitious green policies and a large workforce in polluting occupations. The far-right AfD started campaigning as the only party opposing green transition policies in 2016. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show AfD support increased more in counties with larger shares of employment in polluting occupations once the AfD adopted an anti-green platform in 2016. A panel survey demonstrates that individuals in these occupations also shifted toward the AfD. Probing mechanisms, we find that far-right support may stem from shifting perceptions of social stigma and lower status. Our results highlight the need for a new research agenda on backlash against the normative dimension of the green transition.