Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?

2009/08/01 by ALAN S. GERBER, Alan S. Gerber, GREGORY A. HUBER +1 · 336 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Psychology · Social Sciences · #Consumption (sociology) #Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Expansive #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy #Law #Media Influence and Politics #Political science #Politics #Presidential election #Presidential system #Psychology #Public economics #Respondent #Social psychology #Social science #Sociology #Taxable income

paper · doi:10.1017/s0003055409990098

published in American Political Science Review 103(3), 407-426 (Cambridge University Press)

openalex publication_date 2009/08/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30

Abstract

Survey data regularly show that assessments of current and expected future economic performance are more positive when a respondent's partisanship matches that of the president. To determine if this is a survey artifact or something deeper, we investigate whether partisanship is associated with behavioral differences in economic decisions. We construct a new data set of county-level quarterly taxable sales to examine the effect of partisanship on consumption. Consumption change following a presidential election is correlated with a county's partisan complexion, a result consistent with partisans acting outside the domain of politics in accordance with the opinions they express in surveys. These results support an expansive view of the role of partisanship in mass politics and help validate surveys as a method for studying political behavior.

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