2025/10/01 by Alessio Capobianco · 1 voice · 3 citations
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Bayesian probability #Character (mathematics) #Digitization #Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies #Evolution and Paleontology Studies #Extant taxon #Phylogenetic comparative methods #Phylogenetic tree #Phylogenetics #Plant Diversity and Evolution #Tree (set theory)
paper · doi:10.1098/rsbl.2025.0288
published in Biology Letters 21(10), 20250288 (Royal Society)
openalex publication_date 2025/10/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/15 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
Despite increased recent attention towards Bayesian phylogenetics and its applications in understanding macroevolutionary processes, it remains unclear how many discrete characters are needed to accurately estimate tree topologies in a Bayesian framework. This could be particularly relevant for morphological datasets used in phylogenetics, as they usually consist of few dozens to few hundreds of characters-orders of magnitude smaller than most molecular datasets. I designed a simulation study in the software RevBayes to explore how the number of sampled discrete characters affects accuracy and precision of Bayesian phylogenetic estimates, under various set-ups differing in number of taxa, average number of state changes per character (i.e. tree length) and number of states per character. Results indicate that between 100 and 500 variable characters are necessary to reach sufficient accuracy and precision of phylogenetic estimates for as low as 20 tips. All other parameters being equal, multistate characters produce slightly more accurate estimates than binary characters and more labile characters produce more accurate estimates for trees above 50 tips. The results of this study highlight the continuous need for global research efforts geared towards the characterization and digitization of interspecific morphological diversity in both extant and extinct taxa.