Polarization by Design: How Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs
2025/12/03 by Nadav Kunievsky, Kunievsky, Nadav · 34 voices
Physics and Astronomy · Social Sciences · #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence #Social Media and Politics #cs.AI #cs.CY #econ.GN
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.04047
openalex publication_date 2025/12/03 · openalex created_date 2025/12/05 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Abstract
In democracies, major policy decisions typically require some form of majority or consensus, so elites must secure mass support to govern. Historically, elites could shape support only through limited instruments like schooling and mass media; advances in AI-driven persuasion sharply reduce the cost and increase the precision of shaping public opinion, making the distribution of preferences itself an object of deliberate design. We develop a dynamic model in which elites choose how much to reshape the distribution of policy preferences, subject to persuasion costs and a majority rule constraint. With a single elite, any optimal intervention tends to push society toward more polarized opinion profiles - a ``polarization pull'' - and improvements in persuasion technology accelerate this drift. When two opposed elites alternate in power, the same technology also creates incentives to park society in ``semi-lock'' regions where opinions are more cohesive and harder for a rival to overturn, so advances in persuasion can either heighten or dampen polarization depending on the environment. Taken together, cheaper persuasion technologies recast polarization as a strategic instrument of governance rather than a purely emergent social byproduct, with important implications for democratic stability as AI capabilities advance.
Citations
Discussions
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs [hn, 704 points, 661 comments]
- „AI“ ist der neue Volksempfänger und plötzlich hat die LLM-Schrotttechnologie einen echten Business Case: Die Weltherrschaft der Oligarchen. „Polarization by Design: How Elites Could Shape Mass Prefer [bsky, 14 points, 1 comments]
- Polarization by Design: How Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 @robinnf.bsky.social [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- Polarization by Design: How Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs #polarization #massmedia #personalization #persuasion #influence #manipulation #generativeai #artificiali [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 arxiv.org [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- A dynamic model shows that as AI-driven persuasion lowers costs and raises precision, political elites can deliberately reshape mass policy preferences—creating a "polarization pull" and stable "semi- [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- 🌐AIが説得コストを削減する中で、エリート層はいかにして大衆の好みを形作ることができるか https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 via #HackerNews [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Polarization by Design: How Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Polarization by Design: How Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs View Article | Join the HN Conversation Summary of HN discussion 🧵👇 #hacker-news [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [comments] [499 points] [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- opinion shaping can become intentional, not accidental. #AI #DigitalTransformation #AIethics #DataScience arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Empezar el día leyendo en un artículo de investigación que la polarización abarata las manipulaciones sucesivas de la población... ... y que parte de la premisa de que la IA abarata la forma de polari [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- ⚡ Hackernews Top story: Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- https://bsky.app/profile/news.ycombinator.com.web.brid.gy/post/3m75mmr5ju6a2 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- https://bsky.app/profile/nondim.com/post/3m765jxes6c2a [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 AIによる説得コストの削減が、エリート層による大衆の選好形成に与える影響を考察しています。 特に、エリート層がAIを活用してどのように大衆の意見を二極化させる可能性があるかを分析しています。 設計による偏向という概念を通じて、AI時代の情報操作のリスクを示唆しています。 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs view on hacker news [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https:// arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 # ai # arxiv [mastodon, 0 points, 0 comments]
- 📰 Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs 🔗 https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 💬 Discuss on HN [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46145180) [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- As AI makes persuasion cheaper, could elites gain even more influence over public opinion? This raises big ethical questions about who wields persuasive tech. How should we adapt to this shift? [arxiv [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Un nou studiu arată cum AI-ul reduce costurile persuasiunii, permițând elitelor să modeleze opinia publică și să influențeze polarizarea. Citește detalii pe https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047. Asistentu [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]
- "With a single elite, any optimal intervention tends to push society toward more polarized opinion profiles - a ``polarization pull'' - and improvements in persuasion technology accelerate this drift. [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Elites Could Shape Mass Preferences as AI Reduces Persuasion Costs #HackerNews https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04047 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
Related