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Agent-based Simulation of Pedestrian Dynamics for Exposure Time Estimation in Epidemic Risk Assessment

2020/07/08 by Thomas Harweg, Harweg, Thomas, Daniel Bachmann +3
Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #physics.soc-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2007.04138

arxiv created 2020/07/08 · openalex publication_date 2020/07/08 · arxiv updated 2020/07/09 · openalex created_date 2022/07/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

With the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spreading across the world, protective measures for containing the virus are essential, especially as long as no vaccine or effective treatment is available. One important measure is the so-called physical distancing or social distancing. In this paper, we propose an agent-based numerical simulation of pedestrian dynamics in order to assess behaviour of pedestrians in public places in the context of contact-transmission of infectious diseases like COVID-19, and to gather insights about exposure times and the overall effectiveness of distancing measures. To abide the minimum distance of 1.5m stipulated by the German government at an infection rate of 2%, our simulation results suggest that a density of one person per 16m2 or below is sufficient. The results of this study give insight about how physical distancing as a protective measure can be carried out more efficiently to help reduce the spread of COVID-19.

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