Agent-Level Pandemic Simulation (ALPS) for Analyzing Effects of Lockdown Measures

2020/04/25 by Srivastava, Anuj
#Applications (stat.AP) #Computation (stat.CO) #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.12250

Abstract

This paper develops an agent-level simulation model, termed ALPS, for simulating the spread of an infectious disease in a confined community. The mechanism of transmission is agent-to-agent contact, using parameters reported for Corona COVID-19 pandemic. The main goal of the ALPS simulation is analyze effects of preventive measures -- imposition and lifting of lockdown norms -- on the rates of infections, fatalities and recoveries. The model assumptions and choices represent a balance between competing demands of being realistic and being efficient for real-time inferences. The model provides quantification of gains in reducing casualties by imposition and maintenance of restrictive measures in place.

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