Re‐theorizing Family Demographics

2015/03/01 by Gøsta Esping‐Andersen, Francesco C. Billari · 759 citations
Medicine · Social Sciences · #Argument (complex analysis) #Core (optical fiber) #Demographic economics #Demographics #Demography #Economics #Family Dynamics and Relationships #Fertility #Focus (optics) #Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics #Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving #Medicine #Physics #Population #Positive economics #Sociology

paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x

published in Population and Development Review 41(1), 1-31 (Wiley)

openalex publication_date 2015/03/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Abstract

Two dominant theories within family research foresee a long‐term decline in marriage, fertility, and partner stability. They also assume that this “less‐family” scenario will be spearheaded by higher‐educated strata. Trends in the latter half of the twentieth century seemed to provide ample support for both predictions. However, recent signs of change in family behavior raise doubts about their continued validity. In a number of countries we see a halt to, and even reversal of, fertility decline and of couple instability. In parallel, we observe a reversal of the social gradient on both dimensions. Applying a multiple equilibrium framework, we propose a theoretical framework that helps explain both the phase of marital and fertility decline and the subsequent recovery. We focus especially on the endogenous dynamics of the process, which, we argue, depend on the conditions that favor rapid diffusion. Our core argument is that the turnaround is driven by the diffusion of gender‐egalitarian norms.

Citations

• The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s
• Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe
• The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition
• Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? How Women's Schooling and Career Affect the Process of Family Formation
• Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two‐Child Family Ideal in Europe
• Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition
• Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem
• Family Policies in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis
• A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
• Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003
• Nonpersistent Inequality in Educational Attainment: Evidence from Eight European Countries

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• Demographic processes constrain global growth in gender egalitarianism
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• Gender Equity, Family Policy, and Fertility: Evidence from 30 OECD Countries, 2003–2021
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• Family Change in Global Perspective: How and Why Family Systems Change

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