The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition
2010/06/01 by Ron Lesthaeghe, Ronny Lesthaeghe · 1,790 citations
Psychology · Social Sciences · #Cohabitation #Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences #Demographic economics #Demography #Development economics #Economics #Family Dynamics and Relationships #Fertility #Geography #Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving #Narrative #Political science #Population #Postponement #Psychology #Sociology #Transition (genetics)
paper · open access · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
published in Population and Development Review 36(2), 211-251 (Wiley)
openalex publication_date 2010/06/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06
Abstract
This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners.
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