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Week 50 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season

2012/12/23 by Shaman, Jeffrey, Karspeck, Alicia, Lipsitch, Marc
#Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1212.5750

Abstract

We present results of a forecast initiated following assimilation of observations for week Week 50 (i.e. the forecast begins December 16, 2012) of the 2012-2013 influenza season for municipalities in the United States. The forecast was made on December 21, 2012. Results from forecasts initiated the three previous weeks (Weeks 47-49) are also presented. Also results from forecasts generated with an SIRS model without absolute humidity forcing (no AH) are shown.

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