Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening

2025/05/29 by David B. Bonan, David Bonan, Andrew F. Thompson +4 · 1 voice · 14 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Engineering · Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Circulation (fluid dynamics) #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Engineering #Geology #Marine and coastal ecosystems #Mathematics #North Atlantic Deep Water #Observational study #Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes #Oceanography #Shutdown of thermohaline circulation #Thermohaline circulation #Zonal and meridional

paper · doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0

published in Nature Geoscience 18(6), 479-487 (Nature Portfolio)

openalex publication_date 2025/05/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Cited by

• On early-warning of full versus partial Atlantic overturning circulation collapse
• Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping
• Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century
• Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes
• Controls on the ocean response to idealized Antarctic meltwater input
• Physics‐Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change
• The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior

Discussions

• Although the unlikely but dire possibility of a shut down in the North Atlantic overturning ocean circulation needs to be considered, using observations to constrain the future projections suggests on [bsky, 3 points, 0 comments]